ТРАНСФОРМАЦИЯ ТРАНСПОРТНО-ЛОГИСТИЧЕСКОЙ ИНФРАСТРУКТУРЫ РОССИИ В УСЛОВИЯХ САНКЦИОННЫХ ОГРАНИЧЕНИЙ: ВЛИЯНИЕ НА ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТЬ ВНЕШНЕТОРГОВОЙ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ

Abstract:
Under the unprecedented sanction pressure of 2022–2025, Russia’s transport and logistics infrastructure faced the need for urgent structural adaptation. The problem of the research lies in the emergence of systemic infrastructure imbalances against the backdrop of a radical reorientation of foreign trade flows from the West to the East and South. The purpose of the article is a comprehensive economic assessment of the impact of exogenous shocks on the transport support of foreign trade activities and the development of adaptation scenarios up to 2030. The scientific novelty consists in the conceptualization of the «sanction logistics rent» phenomenon and the application of the export transport intensity ratio to eliminate the impact of commodity market conditions. The methodological framework includes the modified Ryabtsev index of structural shifts, logistics benchmarking methods, and matrix scenario modeling. The study utilized data from the Federal Customs Service, Rosstat, the World Bank, and UNCTAD for 2020–2024. The results demonstrated the effect of «marinization» of Russian exports, the institutionalization of the «shadow fleet» (up to 75.8% in hydrocarbon transportation), and an increase in logistics costs to 18.2% of export value. It was established that the average delivery time for export goods increased from 35 to 52 days, reducing the capital turnover of domestic enterprises. Scenario analysis confirmed that achieving target indicators for non-resource exports is impossible without the accelerated development of container infrastructure. The practical significance lies in forming applied recommendations for synchronizing infrastructure investments with customs administration reforms. Prospects for further research are related to the modeling of digital transport corridors within the EAEU and SCO.