ИНВЕСТИЦИОННАЯ ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТЬ СИСТЕМООБРАЗУЮЩИХ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ: КЛАСТЕРНЫЙ И РЕГРЕССИОННЫЙ АНАЛИЗ

Abstract:
This publication confirms the hypothesis about the heterogeneity of systemically important industrial enterprises in terms of the efficiency of investment-to-profit conversion. The relevance of the study is due to the need for an empirically based assessment of the investment activities of enterprises included in the List of systemically important and key recipients of government support. The purpose of the work is to identify the typology of backbone industrial enterprises by the nature of investment—to-profit conversion and quantify the asymmetry between the identified groups. Based on panel data from 60 chemical industry enterprises for 2021-2024, four clusters with variable efficiency were identified using cluster analysis (k-means method) and panel regression with fixed effects. Within the framework of the results, it was found that only one cluster (20% of the sample) demonstrates a statistically significant positive relationship between investment and profit (β₁ = +0.74; p < 0.01), whereas for 80% of the backbone enterprises of the industry this relationship is insignificant or negative. A retrospective analysis reveals an increased asymmetry between clusters: the variance of the rate of return increased by 278%, and the return on funds increased by 158% in the period 2021-2024. The theoretical contribution is to identify the paradox of the system-forming status: scale and formal inclusion in the List do not correlate with investment returns. The practical significance lies in the justification of the need to differentiate government support measures depending on the cluster affiliation of the enterprise. The scientific novelty of the work is determined by a combination of cluster analysis and panel regression on a sample of backbone enterprises. A promising area of further research is the verification of the results obtained in other industries (mechanical engineering, metallurgy).