МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ ОЦЕНКИ ФИНАНСОВОЙ УЯЗВИМОСТИ СЕКТОРА ДОМОХОЗЯЙСТВ

Abstract:
The article substantiates the relevance of assessing the financial vulnerability of the household sector as a key element of ensuring financial stability in conditions of high debt burden and geopolitical risks. The purpose of the article is the author’s methodology for assessing the financial vulnerability of the household sector, combining the macro and micro levels: the formation of a database, a system of household financial security indicators, the calculation of financial margin, the analysis of the stability of the household balance sheet and an integrated index of its financial security. A comparative analysis of international (IMF, ECB, Bank of Russia) and methodological approaches used in the practice of Belarusian banks is carried out. The research methods are general scientific methods (systematic, complex, comparative and analytical) and special approaches — indicator and probabilistic-statistical. The result of the study is the construction of an index of financial security of the household sector using the method of principal components and expert weighting to determine the significance of factors. The methodology was tested on the macrodata of a sample survey of households on the standard of living of the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus and macrodata of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus. It has been revealed that with a relatively controlled macro-level debt burden and maintaining the financial stability of the banking sector, the micro-vulnerability of the household sector remains. The methodological approach presented by the author makes it possible to form early risk signals and justify macroprudential measures. The prospects for further research are seen in integration with the borrower’s digital profile data and AI forecasting models.