ЗАНЯТОСТЬ В МОСКВЕ В КОНТЕКСТЕ РАЗВИТИЯ ИСКУССТВЕННОГО ИНТЕЛЛЕКТА: ОТРАСЛЕВОЙ АНАЛИЗ

Abstract:
This study examines the relationship between the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on work tasks and observed employment changes in Moscow. It aims to identify the possibilities and limitations of applying international estimates to a metropolitan labor market. The working hypothesis is that high potential applicability of AI to work tasks does not necessarily imply declining employment: outcomes depend on implementation practices and changes in demand for goods. The study adopts a task-based approach, treating occupations as bundles of tasks with varying automation potential. It compares international empirical studies published in 2021–2026, Russian estimates of occupational AI exposure, and Rosstat data on employees of Moscow organizations in 2020 and 2025. International findings are classified by the phenomena measured: potential applicability, actual use, productivity, and labor market indicators. Sectoral employment shares, contributions to overall employment growth, and a structural change index are calculated for Moscow. The main finding is that employment grew in sectors with both high and low potential task exposure to AI. This limits explanations of Moscow’s employment dynamics based on a single technological factor. The study’s contribution lies in specifying sectoral and statistical conditions for applying international and Russian national estimates to Moscow. The data do not allow the employment effects of AI adoption to be isolated from other factors. Urban employment policy should combine employment monitoring with surveys of work tasks and occupational composition. Further research requires data tracking AI adoption within the same organizations over several years.