КИТАЙ НА МИРОВОМ РЫНКЕ ВОЗОБНОВЛЯЕМЫХ ИСТОЧНИКОВ ЭНЕРГИИ: ТЕКУЩАЯ РОЛЬ, ПРОБЛЕМЫ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ

Abstract:
China is one of the leaders in the global renewable energy market: in the production and export of components and equipment, in installed capacity and electricity generation, in innovation and investment. The purpose of the study is to analyze China’s role in the global renewable energy market until 2030, taking into account the possible implementation of various scenarios for the development of the global market, differing conditions of government policy, the level of protectionism and the dynamics of global demand for renewable energy technologies. The research used methods such as analysis and synthesis, a systematic approach, statistical analysis, scenario analysis, economic and mathematical methods. The study revealed that China’s dominance in the global renewable energy market entails a number of negative consequences both for the country itself – irrational use of renewable energy capacity, resulting in losses for generating companies – and for countries dependent on imports of Chinese equipment. It has been established that the key factors determining China’s position in the global renewable energy market until 2030 are the pace of localization of production in importing countries, the development of protectionist policies, the volume of Chinese domestic demand, the dynamics of global demand for renewable energy technologies and the foreign trade situation. Based on the scenario analysis, it is shown that the most likely scenario is to maintain China’s dominant position in the global solar and wind energy market, despite the accelerating localization of production chains in importing countries. China is expected to maintain its leading position in the global renewable energy market in the future, although many large importers will seek to localize renewable energy value chains, and Chinese companies will adapt their export strategy by increasing supplies of components and localizing production facilities abroad, and will continue to introduce new capacities at a high pace, despite the existing surplus.