ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЙ РЫНОК ТРАДИЦИОННОЙ КИТАЙСКОЙ МЕДИЦИНЫ: РЫНОЧНЫЕ ПРОВАЛЫ, РЕГУЛЯТОРНЫЙ АРБИТРАЖ И ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ДЕТЕРМИНАНТЫ РОСТА (2020-2031)

Abstract:
The study is dedicated to the study of the global market of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). The study suggests that the observed gaps between the institutional legitimation of TCM and the state of its evidence base, as well as between the declared market estimates and the actual volume of the regulated sector, are due not to accidental methodological defects, but to structural market failures, the elimination of which requires coordinated government intervention at several levels simultaneously. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the description of a three-level economic taxonomy of the boundaries of the TCM market (narrow / medium / wide), which allows methodologically correct correlation of data from various analytical agencies. The authors propose a mechanism for translating public investment in clinical research into expanding effective demand, verified by the example of the US CMS 2020 decision to include acupuncture in the Medicare program. The proposed taxonomy of market boundaries provides a methodologically correct basis for assessing the economic feasibility of including TCM practices in insurance coverage. Conceptualizing arbitration as a systemic failure justifies the priority of regulatory convergence (harmonization based on ISO/TC 249) over the tightening of individual national regulations, and the three-level taxonomy of the market makes it possible to distinguish between sub-markets with fundamentally different risk and profitability profiles.