СТРАТЕГИИ ВЫРАВНИВАЮЩЕЙ И ПОЛЯРИЗОВАННОЙ РЕГИОНАЛЬНОЙ СЕЛЕКТИВНОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ ДЛЯ СБАЛАНСИРОВАННОГО РАЗВИТИЯ ЮЖНОГО ФЕДЕРАЛЬНОГО ОКРУГА

Abstract:
The article considers selective regional policy as a tool for managing convergent-divergent processes in the Southern Federal District (SFD), whose spatial organization is characterized by a persistent core–periphery pattern. The study aims at a comparative ex ante assessment of the consequences of equalizing and polarized strategies of selective policy for the balanced development of the macroregion, based on cognitive modeling of the selectivity of convergent-divergent processes. The study employs fuzzy cognitive maps and impulse modeling. The cognitive map comprises 34 concepts – investment, infrastructure and labor markets of the eight SFD regions, major investment projects, federal and regional policy instruments – connected by 121 causal links. Initial activations are normalized using Rosstat data for 2021–2025. Spread and backwash effects are formalized according to the cumulative causation theory of G. Myrdal and A. Hirschman. Simulations cover five scenarios. The polarized strategy yields no significant gain for the core of the district, but degrades the periphery and creates a bottleneck, i.e. an impulse reversal in the labor market of the Republic of Kalmykia. The equalizing strategy improves the equilibrium states of all regions, including the core, and minimizes the interregional range of activations. The infrastructure corridor scenario (Rostov-on-Don – Krasnodar – Crimea) provides the maximum aggregate gain, yet does not solve the problem of the off-axis periphery. The optimal option for the SFD is a combined strategy that couples axial infrastructure development with targeted equalization of the off-axis periphery. The results can be used by public authorities in drafting strategic spatial development documents.